Update: Relying on a strong running game, key interceptions and a mid-game switch to sophomore quarterback Chris Relf, Mississippi State rolled over the favored Rebels to win back the Egg Bowl trophy, 41-27. -Ed.
Throw out the records. This is the Egg Bowl. This year's annual rivalry between the Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-7) is the most appealing Egg Bowl in the last half-decade, or longer.
Urban Meyer protege and Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen has squeezed some production out of his offense, and the Rebels are headed to a mid-level bowl, perhaps the Cotton Bowl.
Against elite and mid-level SEC teams, however, both teams have been disappointing. The Rebels have lost to Florida, Auburn and Alabama but inexplicably snuck into the BCS rankings by defeating no. 8 LSU. A confrontation between the KKK and anti-racist protesters overshadowed a victory for Ole Miss last week, even though the anti-racist protesters outnumbered the Klan at least 10-to-1.
The Bulldogs have lost to Florida, Arkansas and Alabama, and went down to Conference-USA's Houston and the ACC's Georgia Tech. With a victory, though, the Bulldogs can gain some momentum heading into Mullen's second season.
Most importantly, the winner of this game will have a recruiting advantage over the next three or four years. Mullen struggled to put together a deep class in 2009, bringing in a fourth of his signees from the junior college ranks. A win over the favored Rebels can change that.
On the other hand, Ole Miss head coach Houston Nutt staked a lot on his 2009 class, signing a mind-boggling 36 prospects. Over the next few years, Nutt will have to be more selective and efficient in recruiting.
Coming into this game, Ole Miss looks vulnerable. Nutt has taken the ball out of quarterback Jevan Snead's hands. The team relied on touchdowns on a halfback pass and a reverse last week. Throughout the season, the team has depended too much on special-teams touchdowns and big plays to overcome turnovers. They have not proved they can run a methodical offense.
Mississippi State has a sharp disparity on offense. Their two quarterbacks combined for 90 passing yards last week, while running back Anthony Dixon surged to second place in the SEC in rushing. Dixon had twice as many yards on a single play (70) as starting quarterback Tyson Lee had. With even modest play from the quarterback position, Mississippi State might be bowl eligible.
No one should underestimate the talent on defense and at running back in this game. State's Dixon and Ole Miss' combination of Dexter McCluster and Bruce Bolden will play at the next level. At this point in the season, every team knows they are their team's only consistent offensive weapon. That has neither prevented McCluster from putting together a Heisman-like surge in production nor kept Dixon from producing explosive plays.
A key to this game will be how Ole Miss (with defensive end Greg Hardy out) defends State's "shovel triple-option."
SEC fans will recognize this maddeningly effective play that Urban Meyer and his offensive coordinator Mullen have been dialing up since arriving in Gainesville from Salt Lake City.
As the play unfolds, the quarterback has three options: a forward pass to the tight end, taking the ball himself or pitching to a running back. The quarterback reads the defensive end. Before the play, a tight end typically stands off the line of scrimmage about two yards. At the snap, he slips behind the offensive line. Mullen has always had the offensive guard pull to seal the backside. With little passing game, State has run this play at least six times a game. It's a bread-and-butter play, around which their entire offense is developed. Ole Miss' defense will have to play disciplined and minimize the damage this play causes.
On the other side, I'm also looking forward to seeing how Ole Miss' Shay Hodge and McCluster are used against State's dynamic freshmen Jonathan Banks and Corey Broomfield. Banks and Broomfield combined for twice as many interceptions (nine) as the entire Ole Miss defense (four). But Hodge and McCluster have been as dangerous as anyone in the conference this year.
I expect Ole Miss to take advantage of State's inexperience by attacking its secondary with in-routes and slants, short routes that can be broken for big gains.
If Snead is on target, the score could get out of hand quickly. With a turnover and some success against a banged-up defensive front, Mississippi State has had a few near-upsets this year and could finally get one this week.
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