Jackson Free Press

Political consulting firm Zata3 polled 500 Jackson voters via phone on Wednesday concerning the upcoming mayoral race.

"We have several friends in the Jackson Mayor's race but no candidates who are clients," wrote Brad Chism, president of Zata3 in an e-mail. "We are intrigued by the dynamics of this race and have decided to do some survey work for public dissemination."

When asked which candidate the voters preferred, incumbent Mayor Frank Melton came out ahead:

Melton: 27%
Johnson: 20%
Crisler: 18%
Hohrn: 6%
Fair: 5%
Other Candidate: 11%
Undecided: 12%

Additionally, 35 percent of Melton supporters were "absolutely sure" of their decision, more than supporters of any other candidate.

Here are Chism's "brief observations" about the poll and the race:

* The race is very fluid. Based on this work and other surveys we have seen, at least four people are seriously in contention for the runoff.

* As Jere Nash observed recently, Frank Melton's trial and the flap over his residency may have boosted his numbers considerably. (This survey occurred on Wednesday--Melton hired a new police chief that day.)

* If the election were today, Melton would almost certainly be in the runoff. A rematch from 4 years ago is not implausible.

* This will all change a lot when the candidates go up on TV and radio and hit the streets with canvassers.

* Again, this is all fluid. For example, a few minutes ago Crisler got McMillan's endorsement and we understand that fundraising is beginning to pick up for Crisler, Hohrn and Johnson.

Zata3 took their data from 70 completed surveys in Ward 1, and 65 in each of the other wards. The sample roughly approximates historical voter registration and turnout, Chism said, but he cautioned not to draw too many conclusions because sample sizes are small.

Jackson attorney Jim Craig, writing on his blog, Jim Craig's World, provided this takeaway point from the survey: "So if the election were held today, the Democratic runoff would be between Mayor Melton and former Mayor Johnson. A ‘Groundhog Day' election . . . which Jackson may be doomed to repeat again and again."

Previous Commentsshow

Oh, no. - This is the first poll I've seen where Melton is actually ahead. - This is the first poll I've seen where every challenger not named Crisler or Johnson is polling in single digits. But I wouldn't lose sight of the fact that, even taking this poll into account, Melton is a visible but divisive candidate--exactly the sort of candidate who might make a runoff without ever getting the necessary 50% + 1.

Tom Head

Apr 3 2009

they didnt call me im for harvey as is my mother and whole family so add that up

NewJackson

Apr 3 2009

Well, Tom Head, EVERY poll I have seen since last November has shown Horhn, Fair, Robert Johnson, etc. way below Harvey Johnson and Marshand Crisler. Melton is the one that has moved up. I believe if the heard doesn't want Melton re-elected its time to fold up their tents and support someone who can win! Take their pick of the top three and support them and quit being spoilers in this race. There comes a time when its about JACKSON and its FUTURE.

Razor

Apr 4 2009

I did my pole and all the people I talked to said none of the above. They wants someone new without the baggage these three have. My pole results show that Daffy Duck had a 20% lead over Melton, Foghorn the Rooster has a 18% lead over Harvey Johnson and their was a commanding lead of 62% saying Porky Pig over Crisler.

Tony Davis

Apr 4 2009

Additionally, 35 percent of Melton supporters were “absolutely sure” of their decision, more than supporters of any other candidate. I would like to know how many are "absolutely sure" they won't vote for Melton. I am undecided about all but that.

WMartin

Apr 4 2009

Don't feel too discouraged about Frank's lead. The 35% of the 27% of 500 that said they were for him come out to be only 47.25 people.

LKL

Apr 4 2009

I'd like to know who paid for the poll. My money's on Frank himself.

Lady Havoc

Apr 4 2009

Razor, you can't have spoilers when there's going to be a runoff. That's the nice thing about runoffs: People can actually vote for the candidate they WANT, and then go with the lesser-of-the-evils approach if they end up with no candidates they want in the runoff. (Though I wouldn't describe Johnson or Crisler as evils; both are really very good candidates.)

Tom Head

Apr 4 2009

Statistics can be interpreted in myriad ways. Zata3 is not an unbiased polling organization, but rather a political consulting firm that offers "persuasion messaging" amongst its other services. I don't mean to discredit them or their poll, but this, taken with Chism's statement that Zata3 has several "friends" in the mayoral race, should serve as a cautionary flag not to read too much into this.

chaffeur

Apr 4 2009

Well I took a poll of the 500 that were called and was informed that Melton was called about half of those 500 times. Melton still several more trials in front of him even if he gets past this federal trial again in May. He dosen't have time to be the mayor of Jackson. I believe that his past four years have established that.

rufus

Apr 4 2009

Both WAPT and Fox 40 reported on this poll on Friday night. I couldn't believe that enough people would actually consider putting Melton back into office. Actually, I can. There are people out there who think he's the best mayor Jackson ever had. It is possible, however, that with so many people running, it could split votes and thus, allowing Melton to make it to the runoff. But I will stick to my prediction that Melton will still the primary race 30 days from now.

golden eagle

Apr 5 2009

Something smelled fishy to me when I saw these results, so I did a little internet checking after seeing this poll. This poll should be ignored by truth-seeking people, and a fairer poll should be done by the JFP or a consortium of news outlets as soon as possible. First of all, when there are 12 Democratic candidates in a race and the pollster decides to take what he assumes are the top four and calls the others "Other," doesn't that automatically depress the numbers of the people left out and inflate the numbers of those left in? And why did he choose four? Why not two? Five? Seven? I also checked the client list of the pollster, and saw this little nugget from the 2005 Jackson Mayoral campaign: "This year, the firm's highest profile political project in Mississippi involves Mayor Harvey Johnson Jr.'s reelection campaign. " http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-3916011/Winning-Connections-continues-own-winning.html The pollster, Brad Chism, says he has no paid client SO FAR, but isn't it plausible that he is not doing this just out of professional curiosity? He says in the intro to the poll, "We are intrigued by the dynamics of this race and have decided to do some survey work for public dissemination." If it comes out that he did this in violation of campaign financing laws (by doing the work now and getting paid after the primary), then he deserves to be prosecuted. This city has had enough of politicians doing shady dealings and pollsters doing shady polls. Why don't the JFP, C-L, JA, MBJ and other papers and media outlets show some leadership here by getting together and sponsoring a poll we can trust?

jacksoncal

Apr 5 2009

Now the latest Twitter post shows a wild swing in the poll. Melton went from being nine points up to eight points down in a two- or three-day span. I'm suspicious about that poll.

golden eagle

Apr 5 2009

Join the club, GE. Did they reinterview the exact same 500 people?

Lady Havoc

Apr 5 2009

This could reflect the effect of the McMillin endorsement on Crisler's name recognition... I can't believe 27% of voters actually support Melton; I find it easier to believe that 9% really support him and 18% don't really care about the election, but don't know who any of the other candidates are. I will be surprised if Melton breaks 15% in the actual primary, much less makes the runoff--but even if he does, I don't see how he gets anywhere near 50%.

Tom Head

Apr 5 2009

ok, so where's the Twitter post update?

FriendsofJackson

Apr 5 2009

That's probably the same poll.

golden eagle

Apr 6 2009

Another four for Melton is absolutely UNTHINKABLE. Please y'all, pick someone else and really support them. This just cannot happen to Jackson... Be a PROJACK!

Razor

Apr 6 2009