Jackson Free Press

The JFP has been telling readers for weeks that the presidential race is much closer than people think in Mississippi. We reported Sept. 30 on the state-by-state poll by the American Research Group that showed that Bush was only pollng 51 percent in the state, Kerry 42 percent with 5 percent undecided, and a 4 percent margin of error. We've been shocked to see no other state media report these numbers. The Tupelo daily even said they didn't think any national polls of the state had been done and the Associated Press on Monday reported that the race is closer here than people think—but without reporting these numbers. Today, finally, Sid Salter—who writes about politics for The Clarion-Ledger—is admitting that Bush's lead is shrinking in Mississippi. But still no numbers—at least about this race. Salter does tell us that John F. Kennedy only got 36.3 percent of the vote here, that Bush I beat Dukakis with 59.7 percent of the vote, and and the best Bill Clinton got was 44.6 percent of the vote here. But where's the actual news—that mere weeks ago, Bush was only polling 51 percent in Mississippi and that Kerry has a real shot if people turn out and vote? Why not tell us this?

Previous Commentsshow

Minority turn-out is key, of course, in Mississippi and everywhere. Kevin Drum writes in the Washington Monthly that the uncertainty of the non-white vote is worrying the GOP. Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has just finished a survey of 12 battleground states and finds Bush and Kerry tied with 47% of the vote apiece. But when he weights for minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Kerry is ahead 49.2%-45.7%. And when he further updates the weighting to take into account the most recent census results, Kerry is ahead 49.9%-44.7%. As Fabrizio blandly puts it, "It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President's campaign." More accurately, if Fabrizio is right ó that Kerry is ahead by 5% overall in the battleground states ó Kerry is a sure winner on November 2. Suddenly the Bush campaign's obsession with challenging voters in minority neighborhoods makes a lot of sense, doesn't it? Their own internal polling is probably telling the same thing that Fabrizio's poll says: unless they somehow manage to keep the minority vote down, they're doomed.

DonnaLadd

Oct 27 2004

Jimminy! I had no idea it was **THAT** close! I am excited - please tell me I'm not dreaming! I was already pumped up at the figures that Salter provided.

C.W.

Oct 27 2004

Of course you didn't. Not if you get your news from The Ledge. It doesn't mean Kerry will carry the state, but it does mean that he could. I'm sick of Mississippian's self-perpetuating notion that their votes don't coounty. Spread the word to your friends and family members who think their votes don't matter. Wouldn't it be intriguing if the Mississippi Delta swung the election? It's a long shot, but it sure is fun to imagine the look on Tom Brokaw's face. Or, better yet, Bill O'Reilly's. ;-D

DonnaLadd

Oct 27 2004

I heard Marty Wiseman of the Stennis Institute at MSU say on MPB this morning that Bush's is losing his lead in Mississippi and that the election could be close here. He emphasized that he still believed Bush would win, though. Anyone noticing a different tone here? It's about time the media notice what's happening here under their own noses.

DonnaLadd

Oct 28 2004

Hate to say I told you so, but you might recall in my very unofficial bumper sticker poll a few months ago, I noted that even at the Madison Kroger there just weren't that many Bush stickers. They do outnumber Kerry stickers, but not by much- and there are many Kerry supporters who, like me don't want to get their car "keyed" by some right wing-nut. I am in Memphis this week, and you would think that Kerry owns the city, judging by the number of signs out....

Rico

Oct 28 2004

It's OK, Rico, you can say that. ;-) What has been meaningful to me is how many people have told me they've seen Kerry signs in trailer parksóexactly as they should be. There is no person in a trailer park who is going to benefit from Bush policies. And a lot of people know it.

DonnaLadd

Oct 28 2004

When LBJ signed the 1964 Civil Rights Act he made a prophecy that he was ìsigning away the south for 50 years." Well, we've still got 10 years to go but this is good sign: In the states mock high school election with over 100k students participating, Kerry only lost by 6 votes. Kids usually mirror the politics of thier parents, so maybe this truely shows how much Bush's lead is slipping. I'm sure Iraq had a huge influence but I'd like to hope that my generation is just more progressive than our parents. Here's the link: http://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/news/stories/20041028/localnews1496525.html

Martin

Oct 28 2004

Sorry, I posted a dead link. Here's the real one http://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/news/stories/20041028/localnews/1496525.html

Martin

Oct 29 2004

On the day after Ivan hit the coast, I went back to La to see my family -- and i decided to make a side trip to Jackson (just for a few hours though, mostly at Cups and Hal and Mals). I was surprised at how well developed Democrat support is in Fondren and Belhaven. Driving through the neighborhood, I saw about 5 or 6 Kerry yard signs but ONE single Bush bumper sticker. I knew that area was the "artsy/liberal" area of town, but I didn't realize it was THAT Democrat!

Philip

Oct 31 2004