Where there was once darkness, there is now light. Where there was gloom, there is joy. Where there was despair, there is hope. But that's enough about Karl Rove, we're here to talk about college football.
Hope is the operative word entering the 2007 college football season in Mississippi. Every state team has a chance to be successful. You couldn't say that this time last year. Will every team have a winning season? Of course not. There will be coaching blunders. There will be injuries. There will be players who don't turn out to be as good as expected. And there will be errors that will make fans want to injure coaches.
Mississippi State has hope because Coach Sylvester Croom believes he finally has enough talent to compete in the SEC. Ole Miss has hope because Ed Orgeron appears to have pulled in another great recruiting class. Ditto for Jackson State and Coach Rick Comegy. Southern Miss is so good that Coach Jeff Bower almost cracked a smile when he heard that the Golden Eagles were picked to win C-USA.
Then there are some fans who are hoping that their team will lose this year so that their head coach will be fired. Then the team can go hire a new, and hopefully better, coach. There's a chance that some of those fans will get what they're hoping for. But Doctor S hopes not.
Here are Doctor S' SWAGs (Sophisticated Wild-Ass Guesses) for the 2007 season.
Mississippi State
Coach: Sylvester Croom (fourth season, 9-25)
Stadium: Davis-Wade Stadium, Starkville
2006: 3-9 (1-7 SEC)
Radio: 105.9 FM
Coach Sylvester Croom promises that Mississippi State fans' patience will be rewarded in 2007. "Building a program takes time," Croom told the (Biloxi) Sun Herald. "… I'm fortunate to be at Mississippi State because the people who hired me understood that this is the way that I was going to do it."
Yeah, but did they know it was going to take so darn long, Sly? The key to State's season is (again) keeping quarterback Michael Henig healthy. Luckily for him, the offensive line is experienced. The nine returning starters on offense include tailback Anthony Dixon (668 yards, nine touchdowns) wide receiver Tony Burks and tight end Eric Butler.
The Bulldogs will need all the points they can get because the defense has just five starters returning including All-SEC defensive tackle Titus Bown.
Key game: LSU, Aug. 30. State can set the tone by keeping the game respectable and avoiding major injuries.
Outlook: Rising. "In the past three years we had to play the absolute perfect game, and the other team had to play their absolute worst game … for us to have a chance to win," Croom told The Associated Press. "We've got SEC talent out there on the field right now at every position, and this is the first time I've been able to say that." And for the first time in a long time, MSU will win six games.
Schedule: Aug. 30, LSU; Sept. 8, at Tulane; Sept. 15, at Auburn; Sept. 22, Gardner-Webb; Sept. 29, at South Carolina; Oct. 6, UAB; Oct. 13, Tennessee; Oct. 20, at West Virginia; Oct. 27, at Kentucky; Nov. 10, at Alabama; Nov. 17, Arkansas at Little Rock; Nov. 23, Ole Miss.
Ole Miss
Coach: Ed Orgeron (third season, 7-16)
Stadium: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford
2006: 4-8 (2-6 SEC)
Radio: 97.3 FM
It's almost Sept. 1. Do you know who your starting quarterback is, Ed Orgeron? The answer is, "maybe," but he's not telling. Is Orgeron just trying to light a fire under the talented but inconsistent Brett Schaeffer? Or does he think the Rebels are good enough to win with a caretaker like former walk-on Seth Adams under center? Orgeron knows he has a stud in running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis and a talented offensive line to pave the way.
The defense also has some questions, such as will Eddie Strong and Jerrell Powe be eligible?
"We all know that our goal is to go to the Sugar Bowl and win it," Orgeron told The Associated Press. "We all feel this year's step forward is to have a winning season and go to a bowl game and win that."
Orgeron knows this, too: Anything less than a winning season will probably mean the end of his days in Oxford.
Key game: Florida, Sept. 22. The Rebels will learn how far they've come when the defending national champs come to Oxford.
Outlook: Schizophrenic. The Rebels have stockpiled talent, but is it enough? Ole Miss played a lot of close games last season, but losing close games is what gets coaches fired. "I feel like we're becoming a championship team," defensive tackle Peria Jerry said to the Associated Press. " … We've just got to go out and do it on Saturdays." The Rebels won't get it done on Saturdays in 2007.
Schedule: Sept. 1, at Memphis; Sept. 8, Missouri; Sept. 15, at Vanderbilt; Sept. 22, Florida; Sept. 29, at Georgia; Oct. 6, Louisiana Tech; Oct. 13, Alabama; Oct. 20, Arkansas; Oct. 27, at Auburn; Nov. 3, Northwestern (La.) State; Nov. 17, LSU; Nov. 23, at Mississippi State.
Southern Miss
Coach: Jeff Bower (17th season, 112-77-1)
Stadium: M.M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg
2006: 9-5 (6-2 C-USA; won C-USA East, lost to Houston in C-USA title game; defeated Ohio in GMAC Bowl)
Radio: 1180 AM/103.3 FM
Jeff Bower has created a monster at Southern Miss, even if few people in this SEC-mad state know or care. He has led USM to 13 consecutive winning seasons, nine bowls in 10 years and four C-USA titles. This year's team might be Bower's best yet. The Golden Eagles return 15 starters from the 2006 C-USA East champion team, including nine from the league's top defense. Quarterback Jeremy Young (1,769 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2006) and tailback Damion Fletcher (1,338 yards and 11 touchdowns) are also back. However, USM is inexperienced on the line and at receiver.
Giddy USM fans are talking about the Eagles earning a spot in the Top 25 or even a BCS bowl berth.
Whoa, says Bower, telling The Associated Press: "You like that experience. But then again, let's not have the mind-set that we have all the guys back and we're the best team on defense. It doesn't work that way."
Key game: Tennessee, Sept. 8. If the Eagles pull an upset at Rocky Top, USM could get serious BCS consideration.
Outlook: Thrilling. USM faces a brutal September with games at Tennessee, East Carolina and Boise State. If the Eagles win all three, they will be in the BCS mix. That won't happen. But USM—inevitably clad in those ugly-ass all-black uniforms—will reign supreme in C-USA.
Schedule: Sept. 1, Tennessee-Martin; Sept. 8, at Tennessee; Sept. 15, at East Carolina; Sept. 27, at Boise State; Oct. 3, Rice; Oct. 13, SMU; Oct. 21, at Marshall; Oct. 28, Central Florida; Nov. 3, at UAB; Nov. 10, Memphis; Nov. 17, at UTEP; Nov. 24, Arkansas State.
Jackson State
Coach: Rick Comegy (second season, 6-5)
Stadium: Mississippi Veterans Memorial Stadium, Jackson
2006: 6-5 (5-4 SWAC)
Radio: 1300 AM/105.9 FM
Coach Rick Comegy restored some of the roar at Jackson State in 2006, leading JSU to its first winning season since 2002. But the Tigers faltered badly down the stretch, losing four of their last five games and finishing one win short of the SWAC Championship. Tiger Nation won't truly be satisfied until JSU goes back to the title game for the first time since 1999 and brings home its first conference crown since 1996. (And as long as Comegy does that every year, JSU fans won't grumble too much.)
The Tigers have 17 returning starters. Quarterback Jimmy Oliver—who led JSU in passing (1,906 yards, 14 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) and rushing (673 yards, five TDs) last year—will be key this season. Also returning are running back Erik Haw and tight end Marcel Frost. All-SWAC lineman Corey Clark anchors the defense.
Key game: Tennessee State, Sept. 8. TSU is picked to be one of the top teams in the Ohio Valley Conference. If the Tigers win this one, look out SWAC.
Outlook: Golden. "I do think we gained some respect last year with the way we played and competed," Comegy told The Associated Press. "But it's obvious the other teams in this conference aren't going to roll over and let us just take it from them. It's got to be earned." No worries, coach, the Tigers will earn their 16th SWAC title.
Schedule: Sept. 1, Delta State; Sept. 8, Tennessee State at Memphis; Sept. 13, Texas Southern; Sept. 22, at Mississippi Valley State; Oct. 6, Alabama State; Oct. 13, at Southern; Oct. 20, Grambling; Oct. 27, Arkansas-Pine Bluff; Nov. 3, at Alabama A&M; Nov. 10, at Prairie View A&M; Nov. 17 Alcorn State.
Belhaven
Coach: Don Lee (third season, 12-10)
Stadium: Newell Field, Jackson
2006: 7-4 (5-4 MSC)
Radio: 930 AM
Outlook: Optimistic. And why not? After losing their first five games in 2006, the Blazers won six straight for their first winning season since 1999. The Blazers, who have 16 starters returning, were picked to finish third in the MSC West Division behind Bethel and Shorter. "We have been able to pick up right where we left off in the spring," said Coach Don Lee in a campus interview. To go to the NAIA playoffs, they need to start winning games in September.
Schedule: Sept. 1, Concordia; Sept. 8, at Southern Nazarene; Sept. 15, Texas College; Sept. 22, Bethel; Sept. 29, Pikesville; Oct. 6, at Cumberlands; Oct. 13, at Virginia-Wise; Oct. 20, Shorter; Oct. 27, at Lambuth; Nov. 3, Campbellsville; Nov. 10, at Cumberland.
Millsaps
Coach: Mike Dubose (second season, 7-4)
Stadium: Harper Davis Stadium, Jackson
2006: 7-4 (6-0 SCAC; won SCAC title; lost in first round of NCAA III playoffs)
Outlook: Champions again. The Majors had a big turnaround in 2006, losing their first three and then winning seven straight to claim the SCAC title and make the NCAA III playoffs. Coach Mike Dubose has 17 starters returning, 10 on defense. The Majors are led by linebacker Shawn Gillenwater (team-high 87 tackles) and quarterback Juan Joseph (2,495 yards and 24 touchdowns passing). A second straight SCAC title appears to be in the cards.
Schedule: Aug. 30, at Mississippi College; Sept. 8, at Louisiana College; Sept. 15, at Austin; Sept. 22, Rhodes; Sept. 29, at DePauw; Oct. 6, Center; Oct. 13, Sewanee; Oct. 27, Trinity; Nov. 3, Colorado College; Nov. 10, Birmingham Southern.
Mississippi College
Coach: Norman Joseph (third season, 7-13)
Stadium: Robinson-Hale Stadium, Clinton
2006: 5-5 (3-5 ASC)
Radio: 1590 AM
Outlook: Improving. The Choctaws are optimistic coming off their first non-losing season since 2001. The Choctaws have 16 starters returning, including sophomore quarterback Adam Shaffer. After a record-setting season in '05, Shaffer threw for 311 yards and five touchdowns in the first half of the '06 season opener, only to suffer a knee injury and be lost for the season. MC has come a long way in Joseph's two seasons. The Choctaws appear ready to challenge for an ASC title.
Schedule: Aug. 30, Millsaps; Sept. 15, Texas Lutheran; Sept. 22, at McMurry; Sept. 29, Hardin-Simmons; Oct. 6, Louisiana College; Oct. 13, at LaGrange; Oct. 20, Mary Hardin-Baylor; Oct. 27, at East Texas Baptist; Nov. 3, Howard Payne; Nov. 10, Sul Ross State.
Alcorn State
Coach: Johnny Thomas (10th season, 46-53)
Stadium: Jack Spinks Stadium, Lorman
2006: 6-5 (5-4 SWAC)
Radio: 90.1 FM
Outlook: Hazy. Alcorn finished one victory short of reaching the SWAC Championship game. "This team has a lot to prove," Coach Johnny Thomas told The Associated Press. The first month of the season, which includes a trip to Division I-A, is a potential season killer. Alcorn has had six straight winning seasons, but still hasn't had the breakout season they long for. Even with 16 starters returning, it won't happen this year, either.
Schedule: Sept. 1, Grambling; Sept. 8, Arkansas-Pine Bluff; Sept. 15, at UAB; Sept. 22, at Alabama State; Oct. 6, Prairie View; Oct. 13, at Texas Southern; Oct. 20, at Southern; Nov. 3, Mississippi Valley State; Nov. 10, Alabama A&M; Nov. 17, at Jackson State
Mississippi Valley State
Coach: Willie Totten (sixth season, 23-23)
Stadium: Rice-Totten Stadium, Itta Bena
2006: 6-5 (5-4 SWAC)
Outlook: Declining. The Delta Devils had a trip to the SWAC Championship in their grasp last season, only to let it slip away at Alabama State. The team has 16 starters returning, but lost quarterback Aries Nelson, who accounted for more than half of Valley's total offense last season. "This is probably the best team I've had..." Coach Willie Totten told The Associated Press. It won't be enough, coach.
Schedule: Sept. 1, Arkansas-Pine Bluff; Sept. 8, Southern at Chicago; Sept. 15, at Alabama A&M; Sept. 22, Jackson State; Oct. 6, at Grambling; Oct. 13, North Dakota State; Oct. 20, Texas Southern; Nov. 3, at Alcorn State; Nov. 10, at Alabama State; Nov. 17, at Savannah State.
Delta State
Coach: Ron Roberts (first season)
Stadium: Travis E. Parker Field, Cleveland
2006: 12-3 (7-1 GSC; lost in NCAA II semifinals)
Radio: 930 AM
Outlook: Uncertain. The Statesmen have 17 starters returning, including linebacker Michael Eubanks, the 2006 GSC defensive player of the year. But DSU has a new coach, Ron Roberts, who must find a replacement for quarterback Scott Eyster. The schedule is full of pitfalls, starting with the opener at Jackson State. Even worse, the Statesmen have to play the GSC's top teams, Valdosta State and North Alabama, on the road in back-to-back weeks. The Statesmen will be good, but not good enough.
Schedule: Sept. 1, at Jackson State; Sept. 15, Henderson State; Sept. 22, at Ouachita Baptist; Sept. 27, at Southern Arkansas; Oct. 6, at Arkansas Tech; Oct. 11, at Valdosta State; Oct. 18, at North Alabama; Oct. 27, West Georgia; Nov. 3, at West Alabama; Nov. 10, at Arkansas-Monticello.
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