The founder of The Weather Channel, John Coleman, recently posted a dismissal of global warming on KUSI San Diego's blog. He writes, "I have read dozens of scientific papers. I have talked with numerous scientists. I have studied. I have thought about it. I know I am correct. There is no run away climate change."
As most of you probably surmised from the identity of my alter ego superhero, Green Girl, I am convinced by the weight of the consensus of the global scientific community that global warming is in fact a big problem that we need to address as soon as possible. I am not convinced that just anyone can read and think about it and come up with a valid conclusion about a scientific matter that vastly differs from the data that scientists around the world have worked for years to gather and interpret. I personally suspect that many folks today are suspicious about the science for political rather than scientific reasons. And I think that it is much more dangerous to not take action on global warming and then find out that it is undeniable than to take action to clean up the environment but then find out that perhaps our fears were overblown. Especially since a cleaner planet is a desirable outcome. But that is just my opinion.
That being said, I am more than happy to have people do the research and come to their own conclusions about this and every other issue that faces us today so that we can have an intelligent debate beyond the realm of sound bites and party lines. So how do you conduct a scientific study? Since most of us do not have sophisticated scientific equipment or years of statistical training at our fingertips, the best we can do is a DIY study of the existing research. Here's how.
1. Consider the source. The widely accepted source for the most reliable scientific data is peer-reviewed scientific journals such as "Science" and "Nature." Before an article can be published in such a journal, other scientific experts must read and evaluate it to ensure scientific merit and validity. Global warming has been disputed in mainstream media articles, which for the most part are not written by experts (they're typically written by journalists trained to show both sides of any debate, however lopsided it may be), but the consensus is strong in scientific journals. Don't forget the difference.
2. Look for the dollar signs. How was this study funded? Who paid for this data to be gathered? Large public universities are generally good sources of relatively unbiased data. Certain people will always complain about a "liberal bias" among university researchers, but the fact remains that these researchers are under tremendous pressure—as part of a peer-reviewed community—to produce airtight results. On the other hand, large think-tanks, which usually have a strong affiliation with a political party, often pay big bucks for studies that support their world-view. Sometimes it is not clear who is paying for the research. If you can't figure it out, you might want to listen to those alarm bells.
3. Keep an open mind. What is the other side saying? Don't tune it out. It is not enough to simply read all of the articles that make sense to you and your point of view. Don't assume that the best data is that which aligns with your own biases.
4. Understand the math. Brush up on your understanding of basic statistics so that you can account for margins of error and other such things in your assessment of an article or argument. Learn how to interpret graphed data.
5. Follow up. Many libraries offer online databases that allow people to search citations. You can search for article citations to see how well scientific journal articles stood up to the criticism of peer experts after publication.
What are your tips and tricks for analyzing data?
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