Jackson Free Press

According to the final SurveyUSA poll before the primary election today, Sen. Hillary Clinton will take Pennsylvania by 6 points over Sen. Barak Obama, 50-44. Obama has made a remarkable swing upward in the final days of the poll, suggesting that Clinton may not see the double-digit advantage that pundits have suggested she'll need for her campaign to gain the much bally-hooed momentum through this primary. (What that "momentum" might mean given Obama's insurmountable lead in pledged delegates is open to even more question.)

According to the SurveyUSA blog entry, Obama's gains have been with men, African-Americans, Philadelphia residents and voters under 50, while Clinton has seen a dwindling in her lead with voters who don't have a college education.

Were these numbers to hold, Clinton would receive approximately 79 pledged delegates to Obama's 70. (That leaves 9 votes in the "undecided" or "other" category.)

Full results and analysis: SurveyUSA poll: Clinton 50, Obama 44

Previous Comments

ID

118819

Comment

People who run for this office are special. I commend Obama for going into a state where it was likely he couldn't win and trying anyway. I likewise commend Hillary for doing the same in Mississippi. I couldn't have done it personally. Where is soul brother Bill Clinton today, the latent southern white man, after all? A joke? A revelation? An observation? What?

Author

Walt

Date

2008-04-22T11:49:28-06:00

ID

118825

Comment

I think the spread will be a little wider, with Hillary winning by 8: 51 - 43.

Author

Jeff Lucas

Date

2008-04-22T12:58:44-06:00

ID

118832

Comment

I wonder if Operation Chaos will be in play in PA? Do PA party rules allow crossover?

Author

Jeff Lucas

Date

2008-04-22T14:49:20-06:00

ID

118833

Comment

Apparently not -- PA is a closed primary state. You have to be a registered Democrat to vote in the primary. So, this will be a true measurement of what Northeast Dems think of these candidates.

Author

Todd Stauffer

Date

2008-04-22T15:18:32-06:00

ID

118836

Comment

I wish I'd been using math when I wrote my 1:58 post. I meant to say I think Hillary will win by 54-46 tonight. But I've spoken to several people this afternoon who think it will be much closer.

Author

Jeff Lucas

Date

2008-04-22T16:05:16-06:00

ID

118842

Comment

Polls have closed. Here we go...we've got jeff on record with an 8-point spread. That looks pretty good. I'll go for a 6-point spread in favor of Clinton (53-47). Let's up the ante...first one with the exact right guess for the final point spread on this thread gets a prize... let's make it a $10 Cups card. ;-)

Author

Todd Stauffer

Date

2008-04-22T18:14:26-06:00

ID

118843

Comment

Nobody? You gotta sign on by 8:00pm to get in on this. You can't wait until the final tally.

Author

Todd Stauffer

Date

2008-04-22T18:41:03-06:00

ID

118845

Comment

OK, I say Clinton 52, Obama 48, and she has to bow out. Maybe that's wishful thinking talking, but can I have a Cups card? (Bet he disqualifies me. Harumph.)

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2008-04-22T18:52:16-06:00

ID

118846

Comment

CNN just called Pennsylvania for Clinton; with 7 percent reporting, the split is 54/46.

Author

Todd Stauffer

Date

2008-04-22T19:08:20-06:00

ID

118847

Comment

Interestingly, a commentator on CNN.com was just recently talking about how Pennsylvania's delegates are allocated in really odd ways...apparently weighing Congressional districts based, in part, on how "Democratic" they've been in the past. In other words, if Obama were to win districts that are Dem strongholds, he might gain more delegates than Clinton if she wins in other more Republican districts. In other words, watch the delegate count closely on this one...the spread could still only tell part of the story.

Author

Todd Stauffer

Date

2008-04-22T19:15:48-06:00

ID

118848

Comment

54/46 with 21% reporting. Mr. Lucas is looking good.

Author

Todd Stauffer

Date

2008-04-22T19:37:32-06:00

ID

118849

Comment

Congrats, Jeff. Yep, the Clinton folks will spin it tonight as a major victory. But it already sounds like it's not nearly major enough. McAuliffe already made the statement that she is "winning the states that matter." Because, you know, the other states don't. There's your old-style Washington talking -- and not realizing that you ought not say such things if you don't want much of the country to hate you. I wonder if that will start another "Bitter-gate" because it's hard to be more condescending to most of the country's voters than that. Except that mainstream-morons don't get that. It's all about the horse race to them. Go, Obama.

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2008-04-22T19:42:38-06:00

ID

118850

Comment

54/46 with 37% reporting. It's holding...

Author

Todd Stauffer

Date

2008-04-22T19:48:39-06:00

ID

118852

Comment

55/45 with 41%...that's a 10-point spread, and double digits. The magic number?

Author

Todd Stauffer

Date

2008-04-22T19:51:42-06:00

ID

118854

Comment

Well, from Terry's POV it's the only remaining argument. After tonight, Obama will still have the "popular" vote and the pledged delegates, and he'll likely retain votes. The only strategy for Hillary will be to convince Super Delegates that she is the most electable because she wins "the states the matter."

Author

Todd Stauffer

Date

2008-04-22T19:59:36-06:00

ID

118856

Comment

MSNBC is reporting Clinton leading 54-46% with 49% of the vote. However, Chuck Todd is reporting that the Philadelphia/southeast Pennsylvania area hasn't reported except for a small number of votes in Montgomery County. SE Pennsylvania is considered to be Obama's strongest area. Clinton is leading in the Pittsburgh/western Pennsylvania area.

Author

golden eagle

Date

2008-04-22T20:06:38-06:00

ID

118857

Comment

54/46 with 56% reporting.

Author

Todd Stauffer

Date

2008-04-22T20:10:53-06:00

ID

118858

Comment

99% of the precincts have reported and Clinton is ahead 55-45%. Obama will lick his wounds and go on to victory in Indiana and North Carolina.

Author

golden eagle

Date

2008-04-22T23:34:14-06:00

ID

118859

Comment

I'm glad that I didn't jump in to claim victory last night. It appears the pro-HRC Reagan Democrats in and around Philly messed up my point spread.

Author

Jeff Lucas

Date

2008-04-23T08:18:43-06:00