Jackson Free Press

A Time magazine poll finds that, thanks to the independent vote, Barack Obama would beat John McCain head-to-head; Hillary Clinton would tie him. Per Time:

Obama captured 48% of the vote in the theoretical match-up against McCain's 41%, the TIME poll reported, while Clinton and McCain would deadlock at 46% of the vote each. Put another way, McCain looks at the moment to have a narrowly better chance of beating the New York Senator than he does the relative newcomer from Illinois.

The difference, says Mark Schulman, CEO of Abt SRBI, which conducted the poll for TIME, is that "independents tilt toward McCain when he is matched up against Clinton But they tilt toward Obama when he is matched up against the Illinois Senator." Independents, added Schulman, "are a key battleground."

Previous Commentsshow

These findings seem like a no-brainer. Both McCain and Obama are more independent-minded than their parties. They both could draw independent voters. Clinton is not likely to. And in the final analysis, Obama is more presidential and inspires people of all parties. McCain has some stinker problems, such as his twisted Iraqi War statements and his views on global warming, which are major issues going forward. Conservatives won't care much about those issues, but independents damn sure will.

DonnaLadd

Feb 8 2008

I'm glad to see that we independents mean so much to this race. :-)

LatashaWillis

Feb 8 2008

I was watching a little bit of Crock News last night ( sorry I meant Slop News) (sorry again I meant Fox news) and saw Dan Abrams interviewing some republican crony or fool named Liars Larson who like Limpbaugh hate McCain. McCain and Obama are out of the box. I'm glad McCain is out of the box because, accordding to Charles Barkley, ex-NBA great, former republican, and cable basketball sportcaster, one would have to be a damn fool to be a republican now, considering Bush's job performance. He also said he voting for Obama because he ain't dumb enough to trust another republican with anything.

Ray Carter

Feb 8 2008

Here is all the data: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Willezurmacht

Feb 8 2008

Far too early to tell. And in any event, I'm not for trying to handicap who might have the better chance to win; I'd rather decide who would be the better President. I like both Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama, have contributed to both campaigns and am having a tough time deciding. Obama has a compelling personal style, and projecting idealism can bring great results (look at all the change JFK inspired, even if he didn't actually accomplish much of it). On the other hand, Clinton's health care plan and mortgage relief plan are both more comprehensive than Obama's. If you ask me, it's a nice dilemma to have!

GenShermansGhost

Feb 8 2008

The popular vote is a second rate projection - it's the electoral vote that counts. Which states would Clinton win? Which states would Obama win?

footsy

Feb 8 2008

I wondered that, too. Anyone seen anything that polls that?

DonnaLadd

Feb 8 2008

Hasn't this campaign season taught us anything about the unreliability of polls? I guess they're okay to build discussion around, but they don't really tell us much. They're really more of a snapshot than a predictor. It is hilarious, though, watching conservatives pull their hair out at the realization that McCain is gonna be their candidate.

eyerah

Feb 9 2008

Obama sweeps the Louisiana primary and the Washington & Nebraska caucuses today. Maine has a caucus tomorrow and I hope he wins that one as well. If I'm not mistaken, he's lost only one caucus and that was Nevada. Tuesday, he has a chance to sweep DC, Maryland and Virginia (where he's speaking as I write this).

golden eagle

Feb 9 2008

Don't forget: He also won Kansas today... Four-state sweep. Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington. I think Clinton could take Maine--her first caucus--but I wouldn't swear to it. I expect Obama to take at least DC and Maryland on Tuesday; Virginia could go either way. The Clinton campaign is playing the lowered expectations game, essentially saying they don't expect to win anywhere until March 4th. It's sort of like how on Super Tuesday, they said they only really cared about New York, New Jersey, Arkansas, and California--which happened to be the four states they knew they would win. This Eeyore strategy is a good way to help them play up the victories they do get in the press, but as we're beginning to see, it plays hell with fundraising.

Tom Head

Feb 9 2008

Obama did win the Kansas Democratic caucus, but that happened last month. I hate it when states don't have their primaries and caucuses on the same day.

golden eagle

Feb 9 2008

*slapping forehead* You're right, of course. I need more sleep or less coffee. Not sure which.

Tom Head

Feb 10 2008

C'mon, McCain stopped being independent when he let himself be used as a poster boy for Bush after the filthy South Carolina primary that Bush ran against him in 2000. And then after McCain started kissing up to the lunatic religious right represented by Dobson, Falwell and Robertson after he called them "agents of intolerance," he pretty much gave up any claim to being an independent or a maverick. All Obama has to do is state that he was against the Bush war in Iraq from the beginning, that he never voted to authorize or incompetently execute the war, and simply restate McCain's intention to continue the ridiculous, failed Bush foreign and economic policies. Yeah, he's a maverick all right. Unfortunately for the genuine American hero Senator McCain is, he is going to look like a pathetic old geezer putting forward pathetic, old policies. He'll be the Baby Boomers' Bob Dole and he'll do about as well in the election.

phronesis

Feb 10 2008

The AP just called it for Obama in the Maine caucus. That's five-for-five this weekend. Obama also won in the Virgin Islands, in addition to yesterday's contests in Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington state. Also, Obama is only 33 delegates behind Hillary Clinton and that does not include delegates in the Maine caucus. Could he go eight-for-eight with the three contests in the Chesapeake Bay primaries on Tuesday?

golden eagle

Feb 10 2008

Maine was the one state this weekend that Clinton was supposed to win. No wonder her campaign manager left! Now her entire campaign will be reorganizing just in time for pretty much certain losses in DC and Maryland, and a competitive primary in Virginia. Her last hope really may be March 4th, but if she can't win Texas and Ohio at that point, she really needs to drop out rather than fighting this at the convention. Winning on superdelegates and those 399 disqualified delegates would remind everybody of Florida back in 2000, and would potentially put this country on track for a McCain presidency. It's not like there's nothing else she can do. She's well situated to replace Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader, I think; she could be appointed to the Supreme Court to replace John Paul Stevens when he retires; etc. And even if Obama won the presidency, she'd be four years younger in 2016 than McCain is now. It's not like this is her last shot at a national legacy. Unless, of course, she wins the nomination dirty then proceeds to lose the presidential election--because then that's all anyone will remember about her.

Tom Head

Feb 10 2008

Maine was the one state this weekend that Clinton was supposed to win. No wonder her campaign manager left! Nothing says desparation like a campaign staff shuffling.

Jeff Lucas

Feb 10 2008

Obama, Hillary in statistical tie in Texas Obviously, this is great news for Obama, as he had been trailing by big numbers before. What could really help him keep Hillary at bay in the delegate count is Texas' archaic delegate distribution. Hillary is more popular among Latinos than Obama, but their voting turnout is smaller than white and black voters. The heavier the turnout, the more delegates are distributed in the state. This would favor the larger urban areas like Dallas/Ft. Worth and Houston, which has a higher concentration of black voters (which helps Obama). But even if he loses by a small margin, that's still good, as Hillary would need to win all the remaining contests by big margins in order to keep pace and possibly win the nomination outright without it coming down to the convention and superdelegates.

golden eagle

Feb 19 2008

Obama wins Wisconsin! With 34% of precincts reporting, he leads 56-43% over Hillary Clinton.

golden eagle

Feb 19 2008

Did anyone hear about Bush 41 endorsing McCain? Of course, that means that Bush 43 isn't far behind, although I think McCain would like for him to keep his distance.

LatashaWillis

Feb 19 2008