Jackson Free Press

Just got an e-mail blast from the DSCC pushing a new poll by Rasmussen that shows that the race for Trent Lott's open seat will be a "real battle" this year. Their phone poll shows a statistical even split -- 47% for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) and 46% for appointed U.S. Senator Roger Wicker (R). Musgrove does better with women and Wicker with men; Musgrove's negatives are 10 points higher than Wicker's.

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Whoa...I should have kept reading...Rasmussen also has the presidential race with McCain leading Obama by just 50/44 here in the Magnolia State. While their language focuses on the "strong racial divide," it's interesting to see that their polling shows under 40 leaning into the Obama column and women break even for those candidates. The strong racial divide is highlighted by the fact that Obama earns 44% of the vote in a sample where 36% of the voters are African-American. Obama overwhelmingly wins the African-American vote. Obama also leads among voters under 40 while McCain wins most votes from those 40 and older. Women are essentially evenly divided between the two candidates, while McCain leads by eleven percentage points among men. According to Rasmussen, GWBush took MS by 20 points on 2004 and 16 points in 2000; this is a 6 point gap between McCain and Obama.

Todd Stauffer

May 29 2008