Jackson Free Press

Political consultant Brad Chism predicts future Democratic gains in Mississippi, despite losses in the Nov. 2 elections, if Republicans continue to alienate minority voters over the next few decades.

"With the exception of what Marco Rubio did in Florida, Republicans have squandered all of the good will George Bush built," Chism, who is the managing partner for ZATA 3 Consulting, told a crowd of about 30 at Koinonia Coffee House's Friday Forum this morning. "There was a significant (in roads) with Latino voter populations, but Republicans' xenophobic anti-immigrant rhetoric really bothers Latinos across the board."

Chism said U.S. Census data suggests a shrinking minority of white voters in America, who appear to have a lower birthrate than incoming Latino populations and African Americans.

Multiracial Americans became the fastest growing demographic group in the country, and the Census Bureau predict that by 2050, non-white groups, including blacks, Asians and Latinos, will account for about 50 percent of the population.

Chism said he expects Mississippi politics to see the change faster than many other southern states, considering the already high African American population. Blacks accounted for 37 percent of the state population in 2009, according to the Census.

"We'll have to wait to see what the Census numbers say when they come out, but obviously birthrates among African Americans are greater than they are for whites in Mississippi," Chism said. "We need to see how much of an exodus we see here because of opportunities elsewhere."

Chism said he expects Democrats to gain in Mississippi while acknowledging that African Americans and Latino voters have a wide variety of political opinions.

"You have the Colin Powells of the world--the ones who've made it. Their argument is they've assimilated, they live in the same neighborhoods, they go to the same country clubs, they eat at the same restaurants. There's less racial identity there and more economic identity," Chism said. "...But traditional blue-collar African Americans remain disappointed but loyal to the Democratic Party, but there's this growing underclass of African Americans, by virtue of this tremendous redistribution of wealth (toward the rich) who just don't know what the hell to do, because they feel Democrats have sold them out, but they're certain Republicans aren't going to stand for them."

Before the emerging population dynamic changes everything, however, Chism said Democrats will likely continue to suffer in the South in national and local elections.

"I think we'll see in the legislative redistricting (that) a lot of the rural areas continue to lose population, or at least they're not gaining enough to keep up with urban areas, so you'll have areas in Desoto County getting more seats and areas in the rural Delta area having fewer seats," Chism said. "A lot depends on the redistricting process, but it has potential to further weaken Democrats' chances in the Legislature."