Jackson Free Press

It's no wonder that economics is called the "dismal science." Regardless of what motivated Thomas Carlyle to coin the term (some say it was a prediction that the world's resources could never keep up with population, while others say it was a negative reaction to ending slavery), no one can call economics an exact science.

The arbitrary nature of economic theory surfaced once again on the heels of President Barack Obama's September unveiling of the American Jobs Act, a comprehensive package of tax cuts, credits, and relief designed to stimulate job retention and creation.

Thirty-four economists weighed in on the plan in a Bloomberg survey published in late September, about a month after the president's announcement. On the high side was Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics (1.9 million jobs retained or created); on the other end of the spectrum was State Street Global Market LLC, which predicted a net loss of 30,000 jobs (a gain of 340,000 jobs in 2012, followed by a loss of 370,000 in 2013). The median average for the 34 economists was a gain of 288,000 jobs over two years, lowering the unemployment rate by about 0.3 percent.

Bloomberg didn't include John Irons of the Economic Policy Institute in its survey. EPI is a non-profit, non-partisan think tank created in 1986 "to broaden discussions about economic policy to include the needs of low- and middle-income workers," according to its website. Irons predicted "the package would increase employment by about 4.3 million jobs," including a "boost" of 2.6 million jobs and retention of 1.6 million jobs.

One fact is not in dispute: Americans need jobs now. The official U.S. unemployment rate is stubbornly stuck at around 9 percent nationally, and 46.2 million Americans live in poverty. Mississippi's poverty rate is the highest in the nation at 22.6 percent, and its unemployment rate for October was 10.6 percent statewide, with nearly 138,000 collecting unemployment insurance benefits.

In the Jackson metro, 22,900 people were officially unemployed in October. The unofficial numbers could be twice as high, given that many have exhausted their benefits—and their energy to find jobs—while others have taken part-time or lower-level work out of desperation. No one officially counts the chronically unemployed or the underemployed.

Congress won't pass every facet of the act, nor will it leave parts it passes unchanged, but, as Deborah Sweeney wrote in Forbes magazine, "It is all too easy to step back and poke holes in these plans, citing all the 'what-ifs' and variables inherent in this type of legislation." For many Americans, Congress just poking holes and doing nothing is not an option.

Following are highlights of what's in the American Jobs Act as proposed by Obama in September and the estimated benefits for Mississippi where available. (Find a fact sheet on the act and the full text at http://www.whitehouse.gov.)

Tax cuts and other relief
• A 50-percent cut in payroll taxes on the first $5 million in payroll, benefitting both employers and workers.
• A payroll-tax holiday for employers adding new workers or giving workers raises.
• Access to lower-interest mortgages.

Increasing employment while addressing infrastructure issues
• "Returning home" tax credits for hiring returning veterans.
• Preventing teacher layoffs while keeping cops and firefighters employed.
• Modernizing public schools.
• Repairing and modernizing roads, rail, airports and waterways.
• Rehabilitating homes, businesses and communities through "Project Rebuild," emphasizing public-private collaborations.
• Expanding high-speed Internet access.
• Establishing a bipartisan National Infrastructure Bank.

'Pathways Back to Work'
• Unemployment subsidies for workers whose employers choose work sharing (reducing jobs to part-time) over layoffs.
• Improving state programs for the unemployed, including an extension of unemployment benefits.
• Subsidies for the unemployed to become entrepreneurs.
• Tax credits for employers hiring long-term unemployed workers.
• Prohibiting discrimination against unemployed people when hiring.
• Expanding opportunities for low-income youth and adults.

How Many Officially Unemployed?
In Jackson metropolitan area: 22,900

In Mississippi: 138,700

In the United States: 13,300,000

Average rate of unemployment in Mississippi: 10.6 percent
• Unemployment rate in Hinds County: 9.2 percent
• In Rankin County (lowest rate for October 2011): 6.6 percent
• In Clay County (highest rate for October 2011): 19.1 percent

Average rate of unemployment in the U.S.: 8.6 percent

SOURCES: Mississippi Department of Employment Security, Labor Market Data for October 2011.
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary, Dec. 2 (for November 2011)