Wyatt Emmerich's ‘Welfare' Chart Dissected by The New Republic | Jackson Free Press | Jackson, MS

Wyatt Emmerich's ‘Welfare' Chart Dissected by The New Republic

With a hat-tip to Jay, we bring your attention to the story From Mississippi to ‘The Corner': A Tale of Right-Wing Wrongness, where our star is none other than Northside Sun publisher Wyatt Emmerich.

The plot? It seems that Emmerich pulled together a chart a while back which he published in the Sun, asserting that a single-parent family making $14,500 a year (minimum wage) actually had more "disposable income" than that same family making $60,000 a year. His story was called "With Welfare It Makes Sense to Work Less."

He then put it on the Internets and the rest was history. He got famous, it burned up the tubes, and people even chatted about it on Sean Hannity's website and blogs at the Weekly Standard.

The problem is -- in a plot twist perhaps too obvious even for Hollywood -- Wyatt was wrong. Like, way wrong.

The piece, written by Jesse Singal for the New Republic, picks apart his numbers:

Problem is, the chart is full of errors. I traced it back to the man who made it, a newspaper publisher in Mississippi, and found that the math, methodology, and logic he used to generate the chart, as well as an op-ed he wrote to accompany it, are wholly unsound. To make matter worse, despite the chart's cringe-worthy flaws, very few outlets on the Internet, from small-scope blogs to a handful of forums hosted by major national publications, bothered to fact-check it. The story of the chart is a distressing new Exhibit A for those who argue that, practically speaking, there's no longer any such thing as objective reality in the digital age.

Here's a quick rundown; more details in Singal's piece.

- It starts with Emmerich overestimating the taxes that the $60,000-a-year family would pay. He was off by over $5k. (His calculation would be based on a taxable income of $60k, meaning a gross income considerably higher.)

- He inaccurately suggests that the $14,500 household would get Medicaid. (They wouldn't -- in Mississippi, they're living high on the hog and don't qualify for Medicaid.)

- He guestimated that the premiums on a medical policy for the $60k family would be $16,500 a year and then assigned that dollar amount to the family's Medicaid "benefit" (even though they're ineligible for Medicaid); Singal did a quick search and found a reasonable policy for under $500 a month, or about $6000. (Note that the poorer family would pay that same amount for health insurance -- $6,000 a year -- since they don't qualify for Medicaid, although the kids might be about to get CHIP with the parent's insurance costs lower; under our current system, however, that parent and sole breadwinner would likely go without insurance, thus placing the family in more jeopardy for income lost due to illness.)

In case you're counting, we're at about $15k that Emmerich has misapplied on his chart... and that's the easy stuff, before we factor in the fact that the $60k job *probably* offers more benefits than the minimum wage job, like cheaper group health insurance, a 401k, paid sick leave and vacation and company contributions to those and other benefits.

Emmerich also gets dinged for assuming a Section 8 subsidy for the family that might or might not qualify -- it's another $4300 that doesn't really add up in most cases.

Oh, and the bottom line is that Emmerich conflated "disposable income" with "economic benefit" -- even granting his basically-made-up numbers, there's FUNDAMENTALLY NO argument to be made that the poorer family actually had more cash to burn than the $60k folks. None. And that's his premise.

...

The TNR piece goes on to make a broader argument regarding the place that fact-checking has on the Web... no doubt.

But beyond the muddled numbers or back-of-the-envelope assumptions that Emmerich, makes, I think the thing he deserves to be called on is the value judgement that is implicit in his argument.

And that is, simply -- why is the $60k-a-year wage-earner somehow better than the minimum wage earner?

Follow me here. I'm not saying that the $60k-a-year person shouldn't have more disposable income or freedom to spend their money. I agree with that notion. I like the idea of spending a little money myself every once in a while, and every dollar I make over minimum wage is an achievement in which I feel I deserve to bask.

But that in no way means that the full-time minimum-wage earner isn't *working* and usually working *hard*. And on top of that, add in the stress of being a single parent in a low-wage household (any-wage household, really) dealing with the realities of a world where one flat tire could mean disaster for your family budget -- that's all somehow mitigated by the glorious freebies -- Earned Income Tax Credit and Food Stamps -- that are wantonly handed out to the ungrateful masses?! Really?

My question is simply this... why did Emmerich set out to make this argument at all?

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Meanwhile, over in RationalLand, we need to get a little used to the idea that manufacturing jobs -- particularly millions of good-paying "blue collar" jobs -- aren't coming back to our shores.

What that will mean is this -- as we pull out of this recession, we'll be relying on job growth in two fundamental sectors -- (a.) technology and related knowledge worker jobs and (b.) retail and service jobs, most of which will be created by small businesses.

A lot of people who would have been working good-paying manufacturing jobs will rely on lower-paying service jobs. Eventually, we'll need to transition to higher-paying service jobs. (Somebody get Wal-Mart on the phone; they're gonna LOVE that one.) If-and-as we do make that transition, some folks -- yes, hard-working folks -- will rely on subsidies (not unlike those that we give farmers and oil companies and defense contractors) to make ends meet and deal with hardships and obstacles as they face them.

As our economy is fundamentally retooled (assuming we can pull that off) we'll have a lot of people displaced, reliant on subsidies to get through the transition and come out on the other side.

Now is not the time to seek out and publish every reason to look down on people because they can't find or can't qualify for a better paying job while whining about our tax burden (now about as low as it's been since 1950). Maybe the better angels of our nature (Republican said it) can stand up and give credit to working Americans -- and help them support their families while they work the jobs that are available in our Brave New Economy.

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