Jackson Free Press

Every year, millions of American's fill out NCAA Tournament brackets for money, prizes or for fun, then they hope not to get their brackets busted.

For some, filling out brackets in March is a way of life. Even our commander in chief, President Barack Obama, has been seen filling out a bracket on ESPN's SportsCenter.com the two years he has been in office.

The problem with filling out brackets is there's no scientific method to getting it right. Chances for filling out a perfect one are nine quintillion (9 followed by 30 zeros) to one.

Since the tournament expanded to 65 teams in 2001, I figured out a few things to watch for. (Use this information to win your office pool.)

In the first round of the tournament:
• The No. 1 seed is 104-0 against the No. 16 seed (100%).
• The No. 2 seed is 100-4 against the No. 15 seed (96.15%).
• The No. 3 seed is 88-16 against the No. 14 seed (84.62%).
• The No. 4 seed is 82-22 against the No. 13 seed (78.85%).
• The No. 5 seed is 69-35 against the No. 12 seed (66.35%).
• The No. 6 seed is 71-33 against the No. 11 seed (68.27%).
• The No. 7 seed is 62-42 against the No. 10 seed (59.62%).
• The No. 8 seed is 48-56 against the No. 9 seed (46.15%).

Looking at the winning percentages, things do not start getting too dicey until the 5 vs. 12 match up. The only near coin-flips are the 7/10 and 8/9 match ups. Help picking the games for the 5/12, 6/11, 7/10, and 8/9 games come later.

In the second round of the tournament, in the 1/16/8/9 bracket:
• The No. 1 seed is 39-9 against the No. 8 seed (81.25%).
• The No. 1 seed is 52-4 against the No. 9 seed (92.86%).

The numbers suggest it is relativity safe to pick the No. 1 seed to advance to the sweet 16.
In the 2/15/7/10 bracket:
• The No. 2 seed is 44-17 against the No. 7 seed (72.13%).
• The No. 2 seed is 23-16 against the No. 10 seed (58.97%).
• The No. 7 seed is 1-0 against the No. 15 seed (100%).
• The No. 10 seed is 3-0 against the No. 15 seed (100%).

Everything looks fine here, unless you have a No. 2 seed playing a No. 10 seed.
In the 3/14/6/11 bracket:
• The No. 3 seed is 32-26 against the No. 6 seed (55.17%).
• The No. 3 seed is 21-9 against the No. 11 seed (70%).
• The No. 6 seed is 11-2 against the No. 14 seed (84.62%).
• The No. 11 seed is 3-0 against the No. 14 seed (100%).

Watch out for the dreaded three vs. six match up here because it is about a coin flip.
In the 4/13/5/12 bracket:
• The No. 4 seed is 28-27 against the No. 5 seed (50.91%).
• The No. 4 seed is 16-11 against the No. 12 seed (59.26%).
• The No. 5 seed is 11-3 against the No. 13 seed (78.57%).
• The No. 12 seed is 7-1 against the No. 13 seed (87.5%).

Overall, this is the hardest bracket to pick. No. 4 seeds struggle against 5 and 12 seeds.

So how do you figure out where to pick the lower seeds in the first or second round?

Going back to 2001, and looking at the major conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big-12, Big East, Pac-10, SEC), there is a trend. Check the winning percentages for the major conferences over the last 10 years:
• ACC has a 90-48 record (65.2%)
• Big-12 has an 88-54 record (62.0%)
• Big East has a 97-63 record (61.0%)
• Pac-10 has a 69-47 record (59.4%)
• Big Ten has a 77-53 record (59.2%)
• SEC has a 64-51 record (55.7%)

What does this tell us? When picking those tricky seeds like the 8/9 or 4/5 match ups, it is a pretty good idea to pick the ACC; and it could be trouble if you pick a school from the SEC.

A vast majority of the non-major or mid-major conferences are one and done (meaning they played one game then were eliminated out of the tournament).

That does not mean avoid these teams. Again, since 2001, at least two teams from the non-major conferences have reached the Sweet 16 or third round of the tournament.

Watch for strong mid-majors and where they are seeded. This year it would be good to keep a close eye on San Diego State, Temple or Xavier. Xavier excels at making the Sweet 16, having advanced to that round four times in the last 10 years, and having advanced to the round of 32 in seven of the last 10 years.

Since 2001, there have been, on average, eight upsets in the tournament—a lower seed beating a higher seed.

Filling out brackets in Mississippi might be all we have to look forward to, because it looks like none of our teams will make the Big Dance. But this year four networks—CBS, TruTV, TNT and TBS—will show games for the first time. By staggering schedules, every game of the tournament is on TV.

Enjoy filling out your brackets, mad people!

Previous Comments

ID

162501

Comment

Come back by after the field of 68 is announced and I will have even more information to help you fill out your brackets.

Author

Bryan Flynn

Date

2011-03-10T10:03:17-06:00

ID

162533

Comment

Here are some other articles with some good information for filling out your brackets. http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/26118/ncaa-tourney-facts-and-figures-to-know http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/tournament/2011/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=6212544 http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/basketball/fba/story?page=tcmen\11brackettrends http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/basketball/fba/story?page=tcmen\11seedsupsets

Author

Bryan Flynn

Date

2011-03-14T23:20:50-06:00

ID

162540

Comment

I am putting my pride on the line. Any readers who want to see if they can best me picking NCAA tournament feel free to join this free group and make your picks: Play 2 win The Game. Follow this link before Thursday to make your selections and enjoy. http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/en/group?groupID=146786&entryID=3425663

Author

Bryan Flynn

Date

2011-03-15T12:41:07-06:00